Previewing the 2012 Heisman Race

What better way to begin than by discussing the most valuable college football players for the upcoming season?  The NCAA has essentially equated the Heisman Trophy to an MVP award in college football.  Some years there is a clear-cut winner, while other years there is not.  The player will most certainly come from a very competitive, winning team.  Prior to breaking out the list, I would like to note a few facts that are imperative when previewing the 2012 Heisman Trophy race:

• No player outside of the power conferences has won the award in the BCS era.  In fact, no player in a non-power conference has won the Heisman since 1990 (Ty Detmer - QB, BYU). 
• Over the course of the last 14 years only four running backs have won the award.  That includes the notorious 2005 winner Reggie Bush, who more recently was stripped of the honor.  I tend to argue that the award should have gone to Vince Yong that year anyway.  Regardless, the only other finalists in 2005 were Leinart and Young.  The way I see it, less than a quarter of the winners in the BCS era have been running backs. The rest are quarterbacks.
• A quarterback has won the award in five of the previous six seasons.  Of those winners, four have been able to change the game with their feet as well as their arm.  Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, and Troy Smith have all shown their ability to move the football in numerous ways.  Three of these players utilize their skills in the NFL and Griffin III is certainly poised to do so in the near future with the Washington Redskins.
• The last time that a defensive player won the award was in 1997.  Charles Woodson took the award, but was an impact player in all three phases of the game: offense, defense and special teams.  As soon as the BCS charmed the NCAA in 1998 the winners have been strictly quarterbacks and running backs.  Despite not winning the award, both  Tyrann Mathieu and Ndamukong Suh have provided respectable showings as finalists.

Understanding these main points as well as a general history of the sport allow me to come up with a list of players who will certainly make an impact and will, at various points in the season, be considered for the Heisman.  Here it is:

Honorable Mention

(15) Keith Price QB, Washington - Price is probably the best player that you have never heard of.  With a stature and style oddly reminiscent of Robert Griffin III, this signal caller transitioned the Huskie offense quite impeccably after Jake Locker left for the NFL.  He enters his red-shirt junior season coming off a year in which he completed 70% of his passes.  Additionally, Price made the 2011 Heisman winner look like a high school quarterback in last years high-scoring Alamo Bowl (Price: 23/37-438yds-4td-0int, Griffin III: 24/33-295yds-1td-0int).  I am sure many will know this young man's name by the end of 2012.

(14) Robert Woods WR, USC - The junior receiver caught 111 passes for over 1,200 yards in 2011.  With 15 touchdowns as a sophomore he has shown the ability to make red zone plays.  The play maker is projected to be one of the top picks in the 2013 NFL draft.  Woods will have a very productive year, but likely bested by his own teammate.

(13) Manti Te'o LB, Notre Dame - The 2011 Second team All-American is a durable playmaker who also snubbed the NFL for one more run with his squad.  Once a highly touted recruit, Te'o has lived up to the hype of the five star ratings.  Having gathered over 300 total tackles and 28.5 career tackles for loss Manti is clearly a decorated Notre Dame linebacker.  The senior will have some dominant performances, but his team's limitations will provide him with some difficulty in attempting to become the first defensive player to win the award in 15 years.

(12) De'Anthony Thomas RB, Oregon - Dubbed the "Black Mamba" by Snoop Dogg during his SYFL (Snoop Youth Football League) days, Thomas is definitely turning some heads in Eugene.  His size hasn't changed much since his time in the SYFL, but his speed, agility and quickness have definitely improved.  As a true freshman in 2011 the five-foot-nine, 160 pound athlete ran for 595 yards and caught another 605 yards.  In addition to his 16 offensive touchdowns, De'Anthony added two kickoff return touchdowns.  With Kenjon Barner taking over for LaMichael James it is likely that Thomas will be used in the same role as 2011, an all-purpose athlete.  The "Black Mamba" will begin to turn heads nationally, but will be slightly overshadowed by the hardier and more seasoned Barner.

(11) Geno Smith QB, West Virginia - Geno certainly hasn't disappointed fans in Morgantown since taking over after Jarrett Brown graduated in 2010.  With Dana Holgorsen implementing a new pass-happy offense, Smith's passing numbers skyrocketed in his junior season.  The decorated, former Big East quarterback has completed over 65% of attempted passes during his career.  Adding over 7,400 career passing yards and a dominant performance in the 2011 Orange Bowl makes Smith an interesting option for the award.  Although he generated quite the offensive production last year, the competition was sub par.  Beginning play in a much stronger Big 12 conference will wear on the Mountaineers and eventually hurt Smith's chances, as a senior, to take home the award in 2012.

Third Team

(10) Aaron Murray QB, Georgia -After taking a red-shirt during his first year Murray stepped right into the starting quarterback role in 2010.  The Tampa, Florida native threw for over 3,000 yards in each of his first two seasons as a starter.  His statistics were undoubtedly aided in 2010 by former All-SEC receiver A.J. Green as the quarterback completed over 60% of his passes for 24 touchdowns.  One reason the red-shirt junior won't quite contend this year is due, in part, to his inaccuracy in 2011.  In only 61 more attempts Murray threw 6 more interceptions with a declining completion percentage.  If the Bulldogs rely more heavily on the pro-style quarterback in 2012 it may lead to even more inconsistencies.  Tavarres King is the top returning receiving target, catching just 47 passes last year.

(9) Sammy Watkins WR, Clemson - The explosive receiver made plays for the Tigers as soon as he stepped foot on campus.  The sophomore caught 82 passes with 12 of them going for touchdowns.  He was dynamic in the rushing attack, gaining over 230 yards, and in the return game, adding more than 800 yards.  Watkins became just the third true freshman named a First-team All-American (Adrian Peterson and Hershel Walker), but found himself in some legal trouble during the off season.  Any type of suspension will hinder the wide receiver's opportunity to make the final cut.  Despite his transgressions, Sammy will be the best receiver in college football this season.

(8) Kenjon Barner RB, Oregon - Kenjon has played second fiddle to LaMichael James in each of his first three seasons at Oregon.  However, the speedy back has accounted for 1,856 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns in his career.  Another stunning statistic is that Barner averages over 6 yards per carry for his career in 304 carries.  Last year, Barner rushed for 939 yards on 152 carries as a backup (LaMichael James missed two games in 2011 due to a dislocated elbow).  Five career receiving touchdowns and two return touchdowns round out the back's numbers nicely.  Barner fits ideally into Chip Kelly's fast paced offense and will likely garner a majority of the carries in 2012.  Another important note is that the California native will be motivated after waiting three years to shine as the prime back.

Second Team

(7) A.J. McCarron QB, Alabama - McCarron is a dark horse for the 2012 Heisman due to the style of offense at Alabama and the defensive excellence in the SEC.  In 2011, "Raymond Anthony McCarron, Jr." led a run-heavy attack that included NFL bound Trent Richardson.  As a red shirt sophomore he posted strong numbers in his first year starting.  McCarron completed nearly 67% of his passes for 2,400 yards as well as a touchdown to interception ratio of 16 to 5.  While the Tide likely relies on the running attack again in 2012, Saban will allow McCarron more freedom in the offense.  With a bigger role in the offense, the quarterback will flourish and be a consideration in the race.

(6) Tyrann Mathieu CB, LSU - The "Honey Badger" is all too familiar with this stage after becoming a finalist for the award in 2011, the first since Ndamukong Suh.  After registering 4.5 sacks, two interceptions, five forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries in his freshmen season, Mathieu was named a First-team Freshman All-American.  The 2011 Chuck Bednarik Award winner continued success throughout his sophomore year returning two punts for a touchdown along with two timely fumble returns.  Be prepared for a larger impact on special teams with Tyrann this coming season.  The junior corner will be the most exciting defensive player in 2012, but probably won't see as many favorable bounces. 

(5) Marcus Lattimore RB, South Carolina - The former Mr. Football in the state of South Carolina was highly recruited, hailing from the small town of Duncan.  Many top football programs took notice and the number one rated running back considered a laundry list of schools.  He decided to stay home and enroll at South Carolina, despite joining a Steve Spurrier passing offense.  He started his career strong as a true freshman with nearly 1,200 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns.  Marcus is a big, bruising back who has shown excellent agility for his 232-pound frame.  Prior to an injury in 2011, Lattimore ran for 818 yards and 10 touchdowns.  The junior running back is expected to be at full strength following a torn knee ligament against Mississippi State last year.  However, the Gamecocks are wise to use caution with this superb young back and it is unlikely that he will become one of the few premier finalists.

The Finalists

  

(4) Collin Klein QB, Kansas State - The hard-nosed, dynamic signal caller for the Wildcats has certainly shown he can will his team to victory.  Klein attempted 281 passes and ran the ball 317 times last year, quite an interesting distribution in modern football.  It is also important to note that Klein accounted for 40 total touchdowns in 2011 with a whopping 27 of them coming on the ground (tying Ricky Williams for the Big 12 record in a season).  In addition, he amassed over 3,000 yards of total offense.  Reports out of the spring game are that Klein threw for over 470 yards and Snyder has given him more control of the play selection.  KSU's offense also returns many other playmakers in Harper, Hubert, Lockett and Tannahill.  The receiver turned quarterback has tremendous durability to go along with outstanding leadership capabilities.  With Klein's steady play and a resurgence of "Snyder-ball" it is easy to see how this senior can make it to the final weekend of the award.

(3) Denard Robinson QB, Michigan - Highly recruited as a defensive back and athlete, "Shoelace" was drawn to UM largely due to Rich Rodriguez's system.  Denard, during his freshman year, split time with fellow quarterback Tate Forcier.  In a difficult season Robinson still ran for 409 yards and five touchdowns.  After winning the starting job outright in 2010, the lethal dual-threat quarterback contributed over 4,200 yards of total offense and 32 total touchdowns.  Rich Rodriguez lost the job before the 2011 season leading to a change in offensive philosophies.  Although the yardage was not quite as staggering, Robinson increased his total touchdown count to 36 during his junior season. The electric quarterback's passing and rushing touchdowns both rose under new head coach Brady Hoke.  Will Robinson finish the season as the best player in the land or will he become a September flavor of the month for the third consecutive season?

(2) Montee Ball RB, Wisconsin - Wisconsin replaces offensive lineman better than any team in the country, which is a big reason for this powerful back's success.  Bret Bielema is dedicated to the run, and rightfully so.  After receiving mainly spot carries during his freshman year, Ball became a key cog in the Badger running attack in 2010.  He upped his rushing touchdown total from 4 to 16 in addition to running for nearly 1,000 yards.  Montee hit his stride as the primary running back in 2011 and was rewarded with a trip to New York as a finalist.  Ball ran for over 1,900 yards as a junior and racked up 39 total touchdowns, tying Barry Sanders for the most in a single season in FBS history.  Producing 33 of those touchdowns on the ground, the Big 10 star also had a career best 6.3 yards per carry.  Montee will make the trip again as long as Wisconsin replaces a pair of superior offensive linemen.

(1) Matt Barkley QB, USC - The NFL needs Matt Barkley, but clearly Matt Barkley doesn't need the NFL, yet.  Despite the strong possibility of being one of the top five picks in the recent draft, the highly regarded quarterback returns to the Trojans to do something he could not for the previous two seasons: play for a national championship.  Due to NCAA violations, USC was on probation for the entire 2010 and 2011 seasons.  Some analysts considered the Trojans the best team in college football, but postseason play and polls were off limits.  Prior to arriving on campus, the high school quarterback became the first non-senior to win both the Gatorade National Player of the Year and the Gatorade National Male Athlete of the Year.  Once at USC he found success almost immediately.  Although his touchdown to interception ratio is poor in 2009 at 15 to 14, his sophomore and junior seasons alleviate any concerns in that area.  The California born gunslinger has thrown for over 9,000 yards and 80 touchdowns in his three-year career.  Barkley has come back for his final year determined to bring a trophy to his school.  He will bring one trophy to Southern California, but it will include only Barkley's name.